SAIL Share Price Target: Brokerage firm Geojit has recommended buying shares of Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL) for short to medium term. The brokerage said that SAIL shares have potential to yield more than 25 per cent in the next three to six months.
Let's take a look at the rationale behind the recommendation along with target price:
SAIL: Fundamental View
• Revenue grew ~12%YoY to Rs 27,371 crore in Q3FY26 driven by higher steel sales volumes.
• EBITDA in Q3FY26 rose ~13.5%YoY to Rs 2,298 crore, with operating leverage from higher volumes, while margins remained stable at 8.4% vs 8.3% in Q3FY25.
• PAT grew ~251%YoY to Rs 442 crore in Q3FY26, driven by strong volume growth and improved operating leverage.
• SAIL is undertaking a major expansion program to raise capacity from 20 MT to 35 MT (Million tonne), anchored by a Rs 36,000 crore, 4 MT project at the IISCO steel plant scheduled for commissioning by FY30. Management expects this project to lift EBITDA above Rs 10,000/t, with annual capex rising from Rs 7,500–10,000 crore in FY26 to ~ Rs 15,000cr in FY27, of which Rs 7,000–8,000 crore will be directed to IISCO steel plant, and overall spending peaking in FY28/29E.
• SAIL has strengthened its balance sheet by reducing net debt by ~ Rs 7,000 crore in 9MFY26, including repayments in January, bringing debt-to-equity near ~0.6x and lowering interest costs, while prioritizing further debt reduction even amid rising capex.
• As per market consensus, SAIL is currently trading at a 1year fwd. EV/EBITDA of 7.8x (which is in line with its 10 year Avg EV/EBITDA of 7.8x). SAIL’s outlook remains positive, supported by strong steel demand and price recovery, driving profitability, while advancing its large-scale capacity expansion program.
SAIL: Technical View
• The stock has exhibited strong bullish price action, with a series of higher highs and higher lows intact, confirming continuation of the prevailing uptrend.
• A decisive breakout above a horizontal consolidation zone followed by a successful retest reflects strong trend acceptance and renewed buying interest.
• The RSI is positioned in the upper bullish zone, indicating strong momentum while still remaining below extreme overbought conditions. The MACD remains firmly positive, with the MACD line above the signal line and a rising histogram, confirming sustained upside momentum.
• Initiate long positions between Rs 158 to Rs 162, maintain a stop-loss at Rs 141, and target Rs 199, offering a favourable risk–reward aligned with the prevailing bullish trend.
SAIL Share Price
SAIL shares closed nearly 1 per cent lower at Rs 159 on NSE on Friday (Feb 13). The target price of Rs 199 implies an upside of more than 25 per cent.
SAIL: About The Company
Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL), incorporated in 1973 and headquartered in New Delhi, is India’s largest government-owned steel producer under the Ministry of Steel. Holding "Maharatna" status, it enjoys significant autonomy and manufactures a broad range of products including hot-and cold-rolled sheets, coils, galvanized and electrical sheets, structural steel, railway products, plates, pig iron, pipes, semi-finished steel and SAIL TMT bars.
